Should I Buy a House Now or Wait Until 2026? The DFW Market Reality Check
- Gigi Pendleton
- Oct 4
- 7 min read
Real Estate for Real Life — Because smart buyers don’t wait, they plan.
🏠 Introduction — The Question on Every Buyer’s Mind
If you’ve found yourself googling “Should I buy a house now or wait until 2026?”—you’re in good company. Across DFW, buyers are watching rates, prices, and predictions like hawks. But here’s the kicker: waiting for the “perfect” rate can cost you more than acting with a plan today. Let’s dig into what’s really happening in the DFW market—and how smart buyers are positioning themselves before the next rate shift.
QUOTE: “Rates don’t buy homes—plans do.”— Gigi Pendleton
📊 DFW Market Reality Check (Single Family Homes Sep – 2025)
Translation: After two years of rollercoaster headlines, DFW has entered a balanced zone. Buyers finally have leverage—but that window won’t stay open forever.
💰 The Real Math Behind “Should I Buy a House Now or Wait Until 2026”
According to the Texas Real Estate Research Center’s June 2026 projection, the state’s housing market is expected to see modest but steady growth as demographics stabilize and the broader economy improves. DFW is no exception. The center forecasts a 1.5% increase in median home price statewide, rising to around $350,000 by mid-2026. While that may sound mild, it’s enough to push affordability further out of reach for many first-time buyers—especially when paired with rising property taxes and insurance.
Here’s what that means in real terms:
A 1.5% increase on a $400,000 home adds $6,000 to the purchase price.
Even if rates ease slightly, that higher price (and the taxes that follow) can offset much of the savings from a lower mortgage rate.
Meanwhile, every month spent waiting is a month of missed equity growth (Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center, June 2026 Outlook) and potential principal paydown.
Example Scenario:
Scenario | Home Price | Interest Rate | Monthly P&I | Equity After 2 Years |
Buy Now | $400,000 | 7.0% | $2,660 | $18,000 |
Wait 18 Months | $406,000 | 6.0% | $2,560 | $0 |
Exhibit: Table comparing costs for buyers deciding whether to buy now or wait until 2026.
→ Even at a lower rate, waiting until 2026 instead of buying now may not save you money.
“Equity grows faster than rates fall.”— Gigi Pendleton, REALTOR® | Ask Gigi: Real Estate for Real Life
🏘️ Rent vs. Buy in 2025 — The Real Cost of “Waiting It Out”
Over the past few months, I’ve worked with several first-time homebuyers right here in Tarrant County who were renting and decided to take the leap. While the median home price in DFW is around $365,000, there are still more than 1,200 active listings in Tarrant County alone for 3-bed, 2-bath homes under $300,000—a price range that’s directly relevant to renters looking for stability and ownership.
According to Zillow’s Observed Rent Index (August 2025) and ApartmentData’s DFW Market Update (September 2025), average 3-bedroom single-family rentals now run between $2,350 and $2,550 per month across the metro.
Let’s look at how that compares to buying one of those sub-$300K homes using FHA financing with 3.5% down and including typical property taxes and mortgage insurance:
Scenario | Home Price | Down Payment | Interest Rate | Est. Total Payment (PITI + MIP) | Typical Rent | Monthly Difference |
Buy Now | $295,000 | 3.5% ($10,325) | 7% fixed | ≈ $2,380/mo | $2,450–$2,550 | ±$100–$200 |
Rent | $2,450 | — | — | — | $2,450 | — |
Exhibit: Table comparing costs to rent vs. buy.
💡 Translation: Even with FHA financing and mortgage insurance included, buying is already competitive with renting—especially when factoring in principal reduction, tax deductions, and equity gains.
Estimated Money to Close:
Component | Estimate | Notes |
Down Payment (3.5%) | $10,325 | FHA minimum requirement |
Closing Costs (≈ 2.5%) | $7,375 | Often offset with seller or lender credits |
Total Cash to Close | ≈ $17,700 | Before any credits applied |
💸 Offsetting Closing Costs with Down Payment Assistance (DPA)
Several active DFW-area programs can help buyers cover some or all of that ~$7,000 in closing costs—often stacked with seller credits or lender-paid options:
Program | Type | Typical Benefit | Eligibility Highlights |
TSAHC “Homes for Texas Heroes” & “Home Sweet Texas” | Grant or 2nd lien | Up to 5% of loan amount | 620+ credit score, income limits by county |
TDHCA My First Texas Home / My Choice Texas Home | Grant or 2nd lien | 2–5% toward down or closing | First-time or non-owner in last 3 years |
Tarrant County HAP | Local grant | Up to $10,000 | For buyers in participating cities |
City of Fort Worth HAP | Local program | $5,000–$14,999 forgivable loan | Must purchase within city limits, income limits apply |
Example:A buyer purchasing at $295,000 could receive up to $8,000–$10,000 in DPA funds, completely offsetting closing costs and even a portion of the down payment. Combined with seller or lender credits, this can bring total cash-to-close under $10,000.
“With the right DPA program, you don’t need a big bank account—you just need a smart plan.”— Gigi Pendleton, REALTOR® | Ask Gigi: Real Estate for Real Life
Additional Insights from Recent Buyers
Several secured seller credits or lender buydowns, lowering their first-year payments closer to $2,100.
Most were already paying $2,000–$2,300 in rent, meaning their monthly cost to own was within $200 of renting.
Homes in this range often qualify for FHA or down payment assistance programs, making ownership even more attainable.
“If you’re renting in Tarrant County, odds are you’re already paying a homeowner’s mortgage—just not your own.”— Gigi Pendleton, REALTOR® | Ask Gigi: Real Estate for Real Life
🕰️ Rates in Context: History Doesn’t Lie
Rates between 2–3% were historic anomalies, not baselines. The long-term average 30-year mortgage rate hovers around 6–7%.Translation: Today’s rates are closer to “normal” than “high.” Waiting for 2020-level magic is like waiting for gas to drop to $1.25—it’s just not the market we live in anymore.
🧮 What You Can Control: The Affordability Levers
Price — Target homes with longer days on market or motivated sellers.
Rate — Explore 1- or 2-1 buydowns, points, or permanent rate reductions with lender credits.
Time — The earlier you buy, the sooner you start building equity. Rent buys nothing but time.
“Smart buyers don’t chase rates—they build buying power.”— Gigi Pendleton, REALTOR® | Ask Gigi: Real Estate for Real Life
📉 Refinance Reality: The Truth Behind ‘Date the Rate’
Most lenders—including Service First Mortgage—are currently offering no-cost refinance options or refi guarantees that allow buyers to refinance within a set period (typically 12–24 months) with minimal or zero lender fees.
What that means for buyers:
You can buy now at today’s price.
Refinance later when rates drop, without double-paying closing costs.
And keep every dollar of equity growth you’ve built in the meantime.
Example: A buyer who purchases at 7% today could refinance to 6% or below next year, saving several hundred dollars per month—all without having to start over or repurchase the home at a higher price.
💸 Down Payment Myths (and the Truth)
You do not need 20% down. Many DFW buyers purchase with as little as 3–5% down. Combine that with seller credits or DPA programs, and your entry point may be far closer than you think.
Texas and DFW Programs to check:
Texas State Affordable Housing Corp (TSAHC) –
TDHCA - Texas Homebuyer Program
Arlington HAP:
City of Fort Worth HAP
🏦 Qualifying Like a Pro
Mortgage readiness isn’t guesswork. Lenders like Tony Byrne with Service First Mortgage look at:
Credit score: Aim for 640+ (higher can unlock better pricing)
Debt-to-income ratio: Typically below 45%
Cash reserves: Even one month of cushion can strengthen your approval
Pro Tip: Ask about pre-underwriting—it makes your offer as strong as cash.
🧭 Local Buyer Advantage — Why DFW Still Wins
Builder incentives: Rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and upgrades.
Resale leverage: Sellers are more flexible on price and repairs than in years past.
Tax strategy: Areas with lower MUD/PID or HOA costs can save hundreds per month.
📄 Buyer Planning Worksheet: Your Roadmap to Real-Life Readiness
Buying a home isn’t just about finding the right house — it’s about building a plan that fits your life and your finances.
My Home Buyer Planning Worksheet walks you step-by-step through the decisions that shape a confident, successful purchase:
Setting your goals and priorities (what’s driving your move and how your needs may change)
Calculating your budget using the 28/36 Rule to find your comfort zone
Pinpointing ideal neighborhoods, commutes, and school zones
Listing your must-haves, nice-to-haves, and compromises
Preparing questions and expectations before you meet your Realtor®
💡 Use it to clarify your priorities, match your budget to your goals, and get focused before you fall in love with your next home.
👉 Download your free Home Buyer Planning Worksheet: https://www.asalependingre.com/homebuyer-worksheet
“Smart buyers don’t chase rates—they build buying power.”— Gigi Pendleton, REALTOR® | Ask Gigi: Real Estate for Real Life
🎙️ Podcast Preview: Tony Byrne x Gigi — The 2026 Buy vs. Wait Conversation
Coming soon to my YouTube Channel → Ask Gigi Online
We’ll talk:
Rate myths vs. math
How to structure a buydown the smart way
When a refi really makes sense
DFW affordability strategies that actually work
“The smartest move isn’t waiting for rates to drop—it’s knowing your options when they do.”— Tony Byrne, Service First Mortgage
⚙️ Next Steps: Build Your Buying Power
You don’t need to wait for perfect conditions to make a smart move — you just need a clear plan. Start by downloading your Home Buyer Planning Worksheet to organize your goals, budget, and next steps before diving into the market.
👉 Download the Worksheet:https://www.asalependingre.com/homebuyer-worksheet
Then, let’s turn your plan into action.Book your 15-Minute Buying Power Consult and let’s outline your best path forward in today’s DFW market.
👉 Schedule Your Consult:www.askgigi.online/consult
And don’t miss my upcoming podcast with Tony Byrne from Service First Mortgage — where we unpack the real math behind buying now vs. waiting for rates to drop.
🔔 Subscribe to my YouTube channel to get notified when it goes live:https://www.youtube.com/@asalepending
Compliance: Equal Housing Opportunity. Real Broker, LLC. This is educational, not financial advice.
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